Olive oil has been poured over bread, drizzled on salads and used in kitchens for centuries. But this golden staple is being shaped by one of today’s biggest ecological challenges. Here’s how global and local olive oil production is being affected by climate change.
Beyond the headlines about cost, the real story is about volatility.
A Shifting Harvest
The Mediterranean has always been the beating heart of olive oil production, but the last few years have shown how fragile the system can be. Spain, the world’s largest producer, saw harvests fall by nearly half in 2022 and 2023 due to drought. Italy and Greece reported similar problems with hotter summers and unpredictable rainfall playing havoc with the flowering and fruiting cycle of olive trees.
This has had a knock-on effect on global prices, which soared to record highs in 2023-2024. But beyond the headlines about cost, the real story is about volatility. Olive oil production depends on nature’s rhythms, and when those rhythms become unpredictable due to climate change, farmers and consumers alike feel the ripple.
The South African Story
Closer to home, South Africa has carved out its own space in the olive oil world. The Western Cape’s Mediterranean-style climate has proven ideal for olive oil production, and over the past two decades, local brands have won international awards and praise for quality that rivals – and often surprises – Mediterranean producers. But here too, climate shifts are being felt…
Olive trees are famously hardy, yet their yields can swing dramatically when seasons don’t behave as expected.
The Western Cape is no stranger to drought, and increasingly erratic rainfall means olive farmers face the same uncertainty as their European counterparts. Olive trees are famously hardy, yet their yields can swing dramatically when seasons don’t behave as expected. Some years deliver bumper harvests while others are leaner – a pattern that is becoming harder to predict.
Interestingly, lower yields don’t always mean lower quality. In fact, some producers note that smaller harvests can result in fruit with more concentrated flavours, producing oils of remarkable depth and complexity. This silver lining is part of why South African oils continue to shine internationally. Still, the bigger picture remains one of unpredictability – and unpredictability is what makes olive oil production so complex in today’s world.
Balancing Local and Global Production
Even with excellent growing regions and Mediterranean-like weather, South Africa remains a net importer of olive oil, which means the majority of what we consume comes from abroad. According to the SA Olive Association, “Around 1.5–2.0 million litres of local olive oil are produced each year, and a further 5-6 million litres of olive oil are estimated to be imported annually.” The majority of these imports are received from Spain, followed by Italy, Portugal and Greece. On the other hand, South Africa exports to neighbouring African countries like Botswana and Namibia.
When global supply dips and prices climb, those increases filter down to local shelves. Yet our domestic industry offers something important: not just a homegrown alternative but world-class oils that stand shoulder to shoulder with the best in Spain or Italy.
Supporting local olive oil producers helps strengthen resilience in the face of global shifts while giving consumers access to exceptional flavour and freshness. The future of olive oil production will depend on how well producers, both here and abroad, adapt. From new irrigation practices to careful cultivar selection, farmers are already finding ways to work with changing conditions. For consumers, it means we may see prices move around more than before – but it also means we’re living through a moment where local oils truly deserve a place at the centre of the table.
A research article by Rabobank reported that “Olive oil supply has become increasingly unstable over the past decade. The production rebound in the 2024/25 season has triggered a sharp correction in prices, which have dropped to EUR 3,200 per metric ton in March, from a record high of nearly EUR 9,000 per metric ton in January 2024.” This showcases how volatile olive oil production has become – big swings in supply are causing big swings in prices.
Climate change is rewriting the story of olive oil production, but it’s also reminding us of something timeless: olive oil is not just about quantity but quality, and South Africa has plenty to be proud of on that front.
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